So with growing outrage over executive bonuses, limited mortgage relief, bailouts with limited transparency etc., what odd would you assign to the probability that Geithner will be relieved of his duties by June? 20%, 40%, 60%?
Well, according to Intrade, a futres site that allows speculation on a variety of outcomes, there is 15% likelihood Geithner will be fired.
If it were not so thinly traded, and I didn't think it improper to bet on the success of our leaders, I might consider placing a long position on this bet. The futures are priced at $15 and would pay $100 if he were fired or resigned by June.
Some other interesting futures bets from Intrade :
- Chance US GDP to decline by 10.0% or more from its peak value between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009: 19.5%
- Dow to close above 7000 on March 31: 83.4%
- Dow to close 2009 above 6500: 67%
- Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it on/before 31 Dec 2010: 25%
- Richard Fuld (ex-Ceo of Lehman) to be indicted by US Federal Govt on any felony charge on/before 31 Dec 2009: 24%
- Angelo Mozilo (Countrywide) to be indicted by US Federal Govt on any felony charge on/before 31 Dec 2009: 42%